a jim jividen blog

Here's the thing. I'm watching one of these shows on the Cooking Channel featuring food trucks. There's a Scottish expat making fish and chips; in a thick brogue he somewhat wearily explains his irritation with Americans who habitually order a side of tartar sauce: "tartar sauce is basically gherkins." That's this blog. I claim no particular insight, no revelation. If you enjoy the flavor, great, but this blog is basically gherkins.

2014 World Series Prediction

Monday, October 20, 2014

In 2010, I took the Giants, we were a little better than Texas.

                                 In 2012, I took Detroit, they were better than we were.

We won both years - this year, I've picked against the Royals in each of their three rounds, and against the Giants in the Division Series matchup with Washington.  I don't really think there's a good system to make postseason baseball predictions, beyond that, historically, the better team wins more than it loses.

Giants 87
Royals 84

Those are the pythagorean records for the two teams - both super low - this is only the third World Series in 110 years to match two teams with fewer than 90 pythagorean wins, expanding the playoffs has had exactly the impact you'd expect, increasing the likelihood that the best regular season teams do not win the pennant.  There's not enough daylight between 87 and 84 for it to be anything more than the slightest possible of advantage for San Francisco - were you to say the Royals had a tougher strength of schedule, beat the Giants head to head, have home field advantage, and the Giants are missing their leadoff hitter as factors to swing that the other way, that makes sense to me.

I'd be concerned if the Royals had more left handed arms; the current lineup configuration (Blanco/Belt/Crawford/Ishikawa/Sandoval) is heavily left handed, enough that as a Giants fan I'd much rather see Guthrie in Game 3 than Duffy.  So, thanks, Ned.

The Giants have better position players; save for Gordon and Cain, each was better this year than his Royals counterpart.

KC has better arms, except for Bumgarner, each Royal was better than his Giant counterpart, starters and bullpen.

For what it matters, I can't imagine anyone would prefer Yost to Bochy.

There isn't inherently a great reason to pick either team; the Giants have the best pitcher in the series and the position player you'd take first were you choosing sides.  The Giants have experience to the extent that matters.  The Royals haven't lost a game in the post season.  There's a reason this is essentially a dead even series at the sportsbooks.

I'll take my club.  Giants in 7.  

Here are the clubs, WAR is a combination of B-Ref and Davenport, position players OPS+ is listed, as is pitchers ERA+.

C Posey 5.65  143
C Perez  3.15   90

1B Belt 1.4    114
1B Hosmer .7  98

2B Panik 1.75    104
2B Infante  -.85  76

SS Crawford 3.8  104
SS Escobar    2.8  92

3B Sandoval 4.05  111
3B Moustakas 0    74

LF Ishikawa .5    109
LF Gordon 6.15  117

CF Blanco 1.45  103
CF Cain    4.35  108

RF Pence 3.55  121
RF Aoki  1       98

DH Morse 2.05  130
DH Butler .1      95


Arias   -.1     67
Perez   -.9      41
Susac   1       125
Duffy   -.05    74

Dyson   2.2    82
Colon    .6      139
Willingham .15  104
Gore     0        55
Kratz    .1         119

Game 1 Bumgarner 5.05 117
              Shields    3.4    124

Game 2 Peavy  2.1  100
            Ventura 3.6  125

Game 3 Hudson  .85   98
            Guthrie   1.4   96

Game 4 Vogelsong .9  87
             Vargas     2.5   107

Casilla  2.45 207
Holland 3.65  277

Romo .35  94
Herrera  2.75   282

Affeldt 1.5   154
Davis   4.15  399

Petit     .65       95
Frasor   .8        266

Lopez .45   113
Finnegan .25  326

Machi 1.75   136
Strickland .3    
Lincecum  -1.1  74

Duffy 3.75 157
Collins  .2     105

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