a jim jividen blog

Here's the thing. I'm watching one of these shows on the Cooking Channel featuring food trucks. There's a Scottish expat making fish and chips; in a thick brogue he somewhat wearily explains his irritation with Americans who habitually order a side of tartar sauce: "tartar sauce is basically gherkins." That's this blog. I claim no particular insight, no revelation. If you enjoy the flavor, great, but this blog is basically gherkins.

A Tiered MLB Hall of 200 - Third Basemen

Thursday, November 20, 2014

The explanation for all of this is here.


Second Basemen

Inner Circle
Mike Schmidt (1972-89, Phillies) WAR 108.15 OPS+ 147 PA 10062
Eddie Mathews (1952-68, Braves) WAR 94.1 OPS+ 143 PA 10100
Wade Boggs (1982-99, Red Sox) WAR 86.15 OPS+ 131 PA 10740

No debate over 1-2, Schmidt and Mathews, in that order, are clearly the greatest two third basemen of all time.  The last spot is a hugely tight three way race that could be ordered in any way, really.

Middle Circle
Chipper Jones (1993-2012, Braves) WAR 82.5, OPS+141 PA 10614
George Brett (1973-93, Royals) WAR 83.3 OPS+ 135 PA 11625
Scott Rolen (1996-2012, Phillies) WAR 71.2 OPS+ 122 PA 8518
Ron Santo (1960-74, Cubs) WAR 70.3 OPS+ 125 PA 9397
Edgar Martinez (1987-04, Mariners) WAR 69.5 OPS+147 PA 8674
Paul Molitor (1978-98, Brewers) WAR 73.4 OPS+122 PA 12167

There's not a definitive way to choose among Boggs/Jones/Brett - Chipper's got more bat, Boggs has more WAR, Brett's right in between them on both metrics, but has a thousand more PA.  Rolen and Santo are well grouped together, almost the same WAR and bat, Rolen's got 800 fewer PA that slips him a spot ahead.  And then there are the DHs, without a specific DH category, we slot them here - Molitor's got more WAR but those 3500 PA means Molitor is in the precarious position of holding off three active players.

Outer Circle
Adrian Beltre (1998-, Dodgers) WAR 65.1 OPS+116 PA 10001
Miguel Cabrera (2003-, Tigers) WAR 59.6 OPS+ 154 PA 7811
Dick Allen (1963-77, Phillies) WAR 58.8 OPS+ 156 PA 7315
Brooks Robinson (1955-77, Orioles) WAR 67.45 OPS+ 104 PA 11782
Ken Boyer (1955-69, Cardinals) WAR 57.95 OPS+ 116 PA 8272
Stan Hack (1932-47, Cubs) WAR 57.45 OPS+119 PA 8508
Graig Nettles (1967-88, Yankees) WAR 59 OPS+110 PA 10228
Home Run Baker (1908-22, Athletics) WAR 51.8 OPS+135 PA 6666
Darrell Evans (1969-89, Giants) WAR 60 OPS+119 PA 10737

Open question if Beltre, who hits his aged 36 season in 2014, catches Molitor; his bat will keep falling and as his WAR rises so do his PA.  Were I to guess, I'd say he eventually gets him.  If Miguel Cabrera retired before 2015, he'd finish his career as Dick Allen.  Robinson has more WAR than all of them, but very little bat and a lot more PA than either Cabrera or Allen.  Boyer and Hack have nearly identical profiles - Killebrew, like Cabrera and Allen, split time with first base, had a high 50s WAR driven by a big bat, he just added a couple thousand more PA.  We end with Evans and Nettles, very similar, but Evans had more bat.  When it's time to kick one of them out, could be that Evans spending so much time away from third causes him to drop.  He could just as easily be a Brave, but tie goes to my team. I've dropped Killebrew out now, replacing with Baker - the WAR disparity is not big enough to support the PA difference.  Killebrew might then be said to go by Evans - but then the Evans big WAR lead over Baker becomes a thing.  It's challenging.

Last Out
Harmon Killebrew (1954-75, Twins) WAR 55.65 OPS+143 PA 9833

Killebrew was referenced above.

On Deck
David Wright (2004-14, Mets) WAR 51.5 OPS+ 134 PA 6531

Yeah, Wright and Home Run Baker are the same guy as of the end of 2014, but there really isn't someone else close for this On Deck slot - in a year, one assumes, it will be easier to slide Wright into the outer circle, bump Nettles or Evans out.

Forever Giants: 1900 New York Giants

1899 is here.

My WAR calculation is a combination of Baseball-reference and Clay Davenport; I believe it to be the "best" WAR number available for historical comparison. 8 WAR is an MVP quality season. The parenthetical is a career Giants WAR total with the eventual goal of a top 100 Giants of all time. The record is pythagorean adjusted for 162 games.

1900 70-92
C Frank Bowerman -.15
1B Jack Doyle -.9 (1.55)
2B Kid Gleason -1.1 (2.5)
SS George Davis 4.7 (39.05)
3B Charlie Hickman 2.45
LF Kip Selbach 5.75
CF George Van Haltren 3.45 (19.2)
RF Mike Smith -.9
C Mike Grady -.55 (3.95)
C Jack Warner .5 (4.35)
P Bill Carrick 2.9 (4.2)
P Pink Hawley 3.85
P Win Mercer 5.25
P Ed Doheny -1.8 (-1.45)
P Cy Seymour -.4 (13.9)
P Christy Mathewson -.35

-On July 17, a 19 year old Christy Mathewson made his big league debut by hitting 3 Dodgers (they weren't the Dodgers yet, but they will be eventually).  Other things happened, Buck Ewing came back to manage, Jack Doyle punched an umpire on the 4th of July and got arrested, three Giants, including George Davis, pulled people from a burning building on their way to the ballpark one day.  But mainly the Giants suffered their second consecutive abysmal season.  

1. Roger Connor 1B 56.9
2. Amos Rusie P 52.95
3. Mike Tiernan RF 42.1
4. Mickey Welch P 41.55
5. Buck Ewing C 40.9
6. Tim Keefe P 29.05 
7. Jouett Meekin P 24.25

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